In week 16, I posted a 1-1 mark with my predictions for the AFC South division. The Tennessee Titans made me look good in beating the Jacksonville Jaguars, but the Houston Texans were surprisingly beaten by the Indianapolis Colts. Despite just a 2-3 record over the past two weeks, my overall record still stands at a respectable 34-14. Here is a look at how I think the teams in the division will fare against one another in the last week of the 2011 NFL season.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts:

As mentioned earlier, the Indianapolis Colts earned their second straight win, knocking off the Houston Texans 19-16. Dan Orlovsky played efficient, completing 23-of-41 passes for 244 yards and a touchdown, while the ground game totaled just 95 yards on 32 rushing attempts. Reggie Wayne also had a solid game for the Colts, hauling in eight catches for 106 yards, including the game-winning touchdown.

On the other side, we have a Jaguars’ team, who played the Titans close last week, but still came up a bit short. With rookie quarterback Blaine Gabbert struggling, Maurice Jones-Drew has been forced to shoulder the offensive load for a majority of the season. Last week, Drew rushed for 103 yards on 24 attempts and caught six passes for 21 yards, while Gabbert threw for 198 yards, completing just 50 percent of his 42 passing attempts.

This game is difficult to predict because the Colts have been terrible against the run this season, which should favor the Jaguars. However, in week 15, they limited Chris Johnson to under 60 yards en route to their first victory on the season. In week 16, they gave up 158 yards to Arian Foster and the result was still a victory. I haven’t picked the Colts often this year, but I will give them the edge this week, especially if they do a good job of containing Jones-Drew.

Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans:

Two weeks ago, the Texans were 10-3 and were a strong contender for the top seed in the AFC. However, following two straight losses to the Carolina Panthers and the Colts, they have to settle for the third seed. With that being said, the Texans will probably be more concerned with resting their starters for the postseason instead of winning this game. The Titans on the other hand, will have a sense of urgency in this match-up because they still have a slim chance of making the playoffs. With that being said, I think the Titans will emerge victorious in this one.

　

James Tillman is a resident of the Chicago-land area who has been an NFL fan for over 20 years. James is also a fan blogger on Yahoo Sports and NJFFL Dynasty. For interesting topics on the NFL, NBA and MLB, follow him on Twitter @jtillman9693.

　

Sources:

Week 17 NFL Picks and Predictions

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The three Titans quarterbacks rank potential plays in the game plan each week, letting offensive coordinator Chris Palmer know which ones they think will be most successful against a particular opponent.

This week, all three quarterbacks — who do their homework separately — ranked the deep crossing route to tight end Jared Cook as an excellent option.

The coaching staff apparently agreed, which is why the Titans went to Cook again and again during their 23-17 win over the Jaguars on Saturday.

When all was said and done, Cook had hauled in eight catches for a career-best 169 yards, a total that included a 55-yard touchdown. He broke the franchise record for receiving yards by a tight end, set by Dave Casper (150) in 1980.

“It was awesome,” Cook said. “I just wanted to kind of prove to the players what I could really be. (Palmer) kind of gave me the opportunity to do that today. He kind of mixed it up, came out gunning, so it worked in our benefit.”

There were at least a couple of reasons the Titans went pass-heavy against the Jaguars.

Running back Chris Johnson was gimpy all week, missing two days of practice because of a sore ankle. Also, the Jacksonville secondary has been ravaged by injury — 11 defensive backs on injured reserve.

“We talked a lot about that,” Cook said. “Their whole defense lost a lot of guys and put them on the IR, so we felt like we could take advantage of that.”

If Cook still had any doubt as to how much influence he might have Saturday, it was answered when he saw the script for the first 15 plays.

“I saw there was a little change-up from the normal and we kind of got excited,” Cook said. “So kudos to coach Palmer for kind of doing that and catching the defense off guard.”

Cook caught three passes for a combined 47 yards on the Titans’ first two series, but it was his fourth catch that provided the afternoon’s biggest highlight.

He sprinted down the middle of the field, past Jaguars middle linebacker Paul Posluszny, and made a 55-yard touchdown reception.

“We all talk about him, what a great talent he is, and today he put it all together,” Coach Mike Munchak said. “It was a huge game by him and it was great on us for getting him the football as much as we did. It made a big difference.”

It was the deep crossing route that paid huge dividends late in the game, with the Titans holding on to a six-point lead and facing a third-and-five from their 22.

Hasselbeck hit Cook for a 29-yard gain, which helped the Titans run out the clock on their final drive.

Only a couple of weeks ago, Titans fans were wondering what had happened to Cook, who went without a catch for consecutive weeks against the Bills and Saints.

But he’s responded with two huge games — a combined 17 catches for 272 yards.

“There are going to be roller-coasters in the season, but you just have to roll with it,” Cook said. “Sometimes the offense is going to do great things and sometimes we don’t. We just have to keep riding the roller-coaster.”

Cook is apparently someone who enjoys coming down the stretch, as he made 15 of his 29 catches in 2010 over the final three games of the season.

“Jared has always had it in him,” safety Michael Griffin said. “You just don’t know when you’re going to get it from him. … He’s a basketball player, but he has the ability to be a great football player. It’s just a matter of having that confidence.”

With all the AFC’s playoff scenarios, the math is simple for the Tennessee Titans.

Win Saturday or nothing else matters.

Tennessee ruined the chance to control its playoff fate with two straight losses, and none more painful than the last to the previously winless Colts. Now the Titans (7-7) are looking up at the New York Jets and Cincinnati Bengals needing lots of help to earn a playoff berth under first-year coach Mike Munchak.

Quarterback Matt Hasselbeck says the Titans have work to do after the loss to the Colts cost them control of the AFC’s sixth and final playoff spot.

“We’re disappointed about some of the things that have happened this year being 7-7,” Hasselbeck said. “That’s all behind us. As crazy as it sounds, we can be really proud if we’re able to go 9-7 because of what we accomplish the next two weeks. I think that’s the mindset right now for everybody. Get better, win this game … then hopefully getting the chance.”

Hosting the Jaguars (4-10) in the home finale offers a painful reminder just how precious each game is. Jacksonville opened the regular season beating the Titans 16-14, spoiling both Hasselbeck’s debut with his new team and Chris Johnson’s first game back with his new $53.5 million contract.

Now Jacksonville limps in with an NFL-high 22 players on injured reserve. The team has been sold with new owner Shahid Khan taking over in January, coach Jack Del Rio is gone with Mel Tucker 1-2 as the interim coach. Helping Maurice Jones-Drew, the NFL’s leading rusher with 1,334 yards, finish with the rushing title and playing spoiler are about all they have to play for now.

“If we get it, we get it,” Jones-Drew said of the rushing title. “If not, I hope we win the next two games. I’d rather win the next two than not. It’s really about winning right now.”

Winning now is why Munchak is sticking with Hasselbeck at quarterback, even though rookie Jake Locker was put in to try and rally the Titans in a 27-13 loss to Indianapolis. Munchak said he is going with the quarterback he believes gives the Titans the best chance to win, especially against a Jacksonville defense that ranks fourth-stingiest in the NFL giving up 307.4 yards per game.

“We just think that this is the best thing to do for the team right now,” Munchak said.

The strained left calf that had Hasselbeck limping at Indianapolis has healed up enough that the 13-year veteran isn’t listed on the injury report. Hasselbeck said he likely just needs to be more mentally tough and not worry about hurting the calf muscle again. He threw for 223 yards against the Colts with two interceptions and is 76 yards passing shy of his eighth 3,000-yard passing season.

The bigger injury concern for Tennessee is Johnson’s right ankle. Both he and Munchak expect the running back to play, and Johnson is 70 yards from reaching 1,000 yards rushing this season. Johnson did not practice Tuesday and did only some individual work Wednesday. Johnson said the Jaguars’ defensive ranking means they have the Titans’ respect.

“We’ve got our work cut out for us,” Johnson said.

Tennessee’s defense faces the bigger challenge in Jones-Drew. He ran for 97 yards against them, mostly in the first half, of the opener, and he has been even better in his last two visits to Nashville running for 177 and 186 yards. Rookie Blaine Gabbert has thrown for only 11 touchdowns since taking over as the starting quarterback, and he was sacked five times in last week’s 41-14 loss to Atlanta.

That’s why the Titans know they must contain Jones-Drew. It’s such a challenge Titans safety Michael Griffin said it tops any playoff worries after Tennessee gave up 205 yards rushing to the Colts.

“Jones-Drew is a tough runner, a strong guy. He can catch and he can run the ball. We know the offense, it’s going off him, and that’s what we want to do. The main part is stop him early,” Griffin said.

Tucker isn’t changing his offense either, not at this point in the season.

“MoJo is going to get his touches, and I think that’s obvious,” Tucker said. “Our offense is predicated on running the ball and he’s a major part of that, and so he’ll get his carries.”

The Titans are 4-3 at home this season, and bouncing back could be challenging with more than 20 players on the roster in the final year of their contracts.

“This team can do anything,” Griffin said. “It’s all about what we put our minds to. So it’s the last home game of the season and we play this game to win. Maybe some of us, our last time playing at LP Field. There’s going to be a lot of things going through our minds. The main objective is to try and get a win.”

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AP Sports Writer Mark Long in Jacksonville, Fla., contributed to this report.

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Follow Teresa M. Walker on Twitter at www.twitter.com/teresamwalker

Yard markers

The longest plays allowed by the Titans defense this season:

Yards Play
80 Colts Donald Brown TD run
78 Texans Arian Foster TD pass from Matt Schaub
76 Steelers Jonathan Dwyer run
43 Falcons Roddy White pass from Matt Ryan
40 Steelers Mike Wallace TD pass from Ben Roethlisberger
35 Steelers Mike Wallace TD pass from Ben Roethlisberger
35 Falcons Michael Turner run
35 Bucs LeGarrette Blount pass from Josh Freeman